Sections

Introduction

Disruptive Military Technologies: A Classification

AI & Robotics

Quantum Technology

References

Introduction

Cutting edge technologies whose manifestation on the battlefield, real or virtual, is expected to have a significant impact on the nature of warfare, are often referred to as disruptive military technologies. At this point in time, technology breakthroughs across a whole spectrum of disciplines are being achieved at such a breath-taking pace that every few years a new potentially disruptive technology emerges. Hence, there is a range of military technologies which may be classified as disruptive in character. The most important amongst these include IW technologies (those which enable cyber, EW and psychological warfare), technologies underlying space related military capabilities, AI & robotics (including autonomous military systems), quantum, nano and hypersonic weapon technologies. Some other military technologies which may be listed as potentially disruptive include those which enable 5G, Internet of Things (IoT), blockchain and 3D printing.

Technology has always played a significant role in determining the manner in which warfare is conducted. The effects of some technologies have been so profound that they have resulted in what are referred to as revolutions in military affairs (RMAs). Over the last several centuries, such RMAs have been few and far between. In this 21st Century, however, due to the vastly accelerated pace of technology development, the so called RMAs might occur every couple of decades, or even faster in times to come.

It is against the above backdrop that this three-part series attempts to examine whether India is sufficiently geared up to leverage disruptive technologies for building up our comprehensive military power in tune with our geopolitical aspirations. Since strategic and doctrinal thinking is a pre-requisite for the successful leveraging of technology for warfare, this work also attempts to take a brief look on whether our defence strategic thought is agile enough to match up to this onslaught of technology.

In this first part, an attempt is first made to classify disruptive military technologies based on their degree of impact on future warfare. Thereafter, a brief look is taken on the global R&D status of AI & robotics and quantum technologies, as also the initiatives being taken by the Indian Government, our Armed Forces and our R&D institutions in these areas.

Disruptive Military Technologies: A Classification

Threats emanating from some of the technologies listed above are already manifest on the battlefield, threats from some others loom on the horizon, while threats from still others might take a decade or more to make themselves felt on the multi-dimensional battlespace of the 21st Century. The degree of disruption could vary widely across the spectrum of listed technologies. Based on the expected impact of these technologies on warfighting methodology, it may be useful to loosely classify disruptive military technologies as either “revolutionary” of “transformative”, with the former having the potential of resulting in an RMA (a term which is not very precisely defined in literature).

Revolutionary Technologies. At this juncture, the following technology driven RMAs appear to be either already unfolding or quite likely to occur in the foreseeable future:-

• Current ‘ICT’ RMA. Beginning with the Iraq wars and continuing to the present juncture and beyond, information and communication technologies (ICT) are widely believed to have resulted in the ongoing “system of systems” RMA. This RMA is based on two operational concepts, namely, network centric warfare (NCW) and information warfare (IW). While NCW depends on own networks (including space segment) and applications for enhancing combat potential, IW leverages technologies which help achieve information dominance as well as physical effects in and through the cyber, EW and cognitive domains. It is also important to note here that, as a result of this current ‘ICT’ RMA, the arena of warfighting has shifted very significantly from the physical to the information (cyber and EW) and cognitive (psychological) realms.
• Looming ‘AI’ RMA. With the astonishing breakthroughs being reported almost every few months in the fields of AI & robotics, together with the already visible advent of lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS) on the battlefield, the combine of AI & robotics technologies is widely believed to be the harbinger of the next RMA, which will possibly manifest in full force within the next two decades.
• Future ‘AI-Nano-Bio’ RMA. While the impact of nano and bio technologies is already being felt in some military systems, a future ‘AI-Nano-Bio’ RMA may be expected when the right synergies are achieved with further advances in AI, robotics, nano and bio technologies, in an estimated time-frame of three to four decades.

Transformative Technologies. Two technologies which could have a very high disruptive effect, but might fall short of ushering in an RMA, are the quantum and hypersonic weapon technologies. Some other transformative military technologies, which are mostly dual-use in nature, include 5G, IoT, blockchain and 3D printing.

ICT technologies have been in use for several decades now, and have already been widely analysed. As regards 5G, IoT, blockchain and 3D printing, it is felt that being dual-use in nature these will be readily available off the shelf, including for military applications, as and when they mature. This work, therefore, examines the following four technologies: AI & robotics, quantum, nano and hypersonic weapons, which arguably deserve the highest priority for defence-centric research at this juncture.

AI & Robotics

Military Applications

As stated above, the AI & robotics technologies together have the potential of revolutionising warfare over the next few decades. The vast range of applications of these technologies may broadly be categorised under four heads: autonomous weapon systems, cyberspace operations, knowledge applications, and AI in decision-making/ wargaming. However, the most impactful amongst these is the sub-category of Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS). Some autonomous weapon systems, though not AI-powered, are already in use by various armies for many years now [1]. What is seizing the world’s imagination, however, is the potentially high disruptive nature of AI-powered LAWS, which is why dominant world powers are allocating billions of dollars for R&D in this field.

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US AI Initiatives and the Third Offset Strategy. In November 2014, the then US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel announced a new Defense Innovation Initiative, also termed as the Third Offset Strategy, which seeks to maintain the supremacy of the US on the world stage through technological dominance, and central to this strategy were AI & robotics related technologies [2,3]. In 2018, the Department of Defense (DoD) issued the Department of Defense Artificial Intelligence Strategy, which describes the Department’s overall framework for AI development [4]. The Joint Artificial Intelligence Centre (JAIC) established in June 2018 is DoD’s focal point for execution of the DoD AI Strategy. For long-term R&D investments, the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), including the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), and the military service laboratories are in the lead. Alongside JAIC, one of the first deployed initiatives of AI comes from Project Maven, which focuses on computer vision aboard unmanned aerial vehicles. This program is a key example of public-private partnerships in technology. DARPA also works closely with industry to jointly fund research in AI for long-term breakthroughs. The annual funding for defence and federal AI projects is expected to be of the order of a few billion dollars.

China’s AI Plan: Leading AI Power by 2030. In July 2017, the State Council of China released the New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan. This policy outlines China’s strategy to build a domestic AI industry worth nearly US$150 billion over the next few years and to become the leading AI power by 2030 [5]. China’s focus on AI, in addition to other technologies, is also seen to be its response to the Third Offset Strategy of the US. As per Chinese military thought, autonomous military systems and human-machine teaming on the battlefield of the future will graduate to a level where the pace of combat operations will reach a “singularity”, beyond which human decision-making will no longer be able to cope with the battle situation, and decision-making will increasingly be taken over by AI powered intelligent machines. The Central Military Commission (CMC) Science and Technology Commission has launched well-funded plans focused on cutting edge technologies, with AI being prominent amongst them. The PLA Army, Navy, Air Force, Rocket Force, and Strategic Support Force are all pursuing their own service-specific AI projects through their captive research institutes and partnerships. The Academy of Military Science (AMS) and the National University of Defense Technology (NUDT) are the premier PLA institutions which are pioneering military initiatives in AI. The main stakeholders in AI R&D within China’s military industrial complex are the China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC), the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) and the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) [6].

The Indian Context

In the Indian context, the current status of R&D in AI powered military systems may be gauged from the following:-

• Deployment Scenarios. The Indian military landscape offers a wide variety of operational scenarios where autonomous systems (AS), and more specifically LAWS, may be deployed to advantage. Example scenarios/ systems in increasing degree of complexity include anti-IED operations, surveillance drone swarms, robot sentries and autonomous armed vehicles deployed in the land, sea and air domains. In futuristic battlefield settings, deployment of robot soldiers in conventional and CI operations might also become a feasibility [7].
• National Initiatives. In Feb 2018, the Ministry of Defence (Defence Production) set up a task force to prepare the country’s future AI roadmap for development of both defensive and offensive warfare capabilities [8]. Based on its report submitted in June 2018, the Department of Defence Production issued a government order in February 2019, vide which a High Level Defence AI Council (DAIC) has been constituted under the chairmanship of the Defence Minister, with the primary charter of providing strategic direction for AI driven transformation in defence, facilitating R&D and technology adaptation, and ensuring ethical use of AI technology in defence applications, amongst others. The order also institutes a Defence AI Project Agency (DAIPA) with Secretary (Defence Production) as the Chairman, which is tasked with implementing the government order [9].
• Armed Forces Perspective. Even as the prospect of an AI driven RMA looms on the horizon, our Defence Forces at this juncture are not fully seized of the imperative for developing critical AI applications and systems. Had this not been the case, by now concept papers and doctrinal literature on how AI is expected to change the flavour of future warfare, should have emerged. The Technology Perspective and capability Roadmap (TPCR) 2018, which is prepared by HQ Integrated Defence Services (IDS) and is meant to make a 15-year technology projection for the Armed Forces, does not list out a single project related to AI & robotics [10]. The fact that the task force for working out the roadmap for development of AI based military systems was neither initiated nor even steered by the Armed Forces itself speaks volumes about their perspective on the issue. Based on the directions of the DAIPA, some projects areas have now been identified. Clearly, if the power of AI & robotics technologies are to be harnessed for military applications, it is the Services which need to act as the fulcrum for all R&D in this vital field.
• DRDO Work. DRDO’s main facility working in this area is the Centre for Artificial Intelligence & Robotics (CAIR), whose vision, mission and objectives all refer to development of intelligent systems/ AI/ robotics technologies. CAIR has made limited headway in making some prototype systems, such as “Muntra” UGV, “Daksh” remotely operated vehicle, wall climbing and flapping wing robots, etc. However, if India is to keep pace with progress in the international arena, these efforts are grossly insufficient [11, 12, 13].

The above status indicates that the importance of pursuing R&D activity in AI technologies for military applications has only now being realized by the Government and the Armed Forces. Having already lost precious time on this front, and given our poor record in the development of cutting edge technologies, nothing less than a transformative effort by all stake-holders, and especially by the Armed Forces, will suffice at this juncture.

Quantum Technology

Military Applications

The more significant military applications of quantum technology are in the areas of communications and sensing, as under [14]:-

• Quantum Cryptography. Quantum cryptography (designing of encryption schemes) uses the “spooky” phenomenon of quantum entanglement to facilitate the secure sharing of one-time pads (OTPs), which are essentially a set of cryptographic keys considered as having the highest degree of crack-resistivity. The phenomenon of quantum entanglement renders any man-in-the-middle attack infeasible, thus rendering the sharing of keys unhackable.
• Quantum Computing and Cryptanalysis. In the related area of cryptanalysis, quantum computing, by using the superposition characteristic of quantum bits or “qubits” in conjunction with “Shor’s Algorithm”, enables the cracking of a large number of popular encryption algorithms which are based on prime numbers. One of the milestones often talked about in the context of progress in quantum computing is the race for achieving “quantum supremacy,” which is said to be achieved when a quantum computer performs any calculation that, for all practical purposes, a classical computer cannot. It is estimated that, in order to attain this milestone, a 100 qubit quantum computer would be needed [15]. As on date, experimental quantum computers of 70 qubits have been demonstrated, and performance breakthroughs are being reported at frequent intervals.
• Quantum Sensing. In concept quantum sensing, of which quantum radar is a prime example, would use quantum entanglement to achieve enhanced detection capabilities, which would be sophisticated enough to compromise current state-of-the-art stealth technologies.

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United States. In December 2018, President Trump signed the National Quantum Initiative (NQI) Act [16]. The law authorizes $1.2 billion to be invested in quantum information science over five years. NQI funding will go to the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), National Science Foundation (NSF) Multidisciplinary Centres for Quantum Research & Education, Department of Energy Research and National Quantum Information Science Research Centres. Among the armed forces, the US Army Research Office funds extensive research in quantum computing, while the US Air Force sees it as transformative technology for information and space warfare. Private-sector companies such as Google, IBM, Intel and Microsoft, have been conducting quantum research for almost a decade [17]. While China appears to have got the lead in quantum communications for now, the US is possibly ahead in the field of quantum computing. Google recently claimed to have achieved quantum supremacy by solving a problem in 200 seconds that would take a classical computer 10,000 years to solve [18].

China. For several years now China is vigorously pursuing research and development in quantum information science as a national priority. This research is being pioneered and led by Pan Jianwei, who is known as the father of quantum science and technology in China. The Snowden leaks, which signalled to China that there were glaring disparities in its cyber capabilities as compared to the United States, was one of the triggers which spurred China into considering quantum information science as having strategic importance. Its 13th Five-Year Plan’s (2016-2020) National Science and Technology Innovation Plan strengthens the focus in this area. The National Key R&D Plan accords similar priority to quantum technology. There is a view in China that quantum disruptive technologies have the potential of undermining the technological dominance of the US in information-age warfare [19]. As per available information, Chinese state-owned defence firms are involved in conducting R&D in this area include the China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC), which has close ties to the PLA, the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) and the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC). China’s cutting edge expertise in quantum communications was amply demonstrated when it launched Micius, the world’s first quantum satellite, as part of Project Quantum Experiments at Space Scale (QUESS). By 2030, China plans to establish a network of quantum satellites for secure military communications in support of enhanced command & control as well as long-range precision strike capabilities [20].

The Indian Context

India is at least a decade behind countries at the forefront of research in quantum technologies, with China and US in the lead. An insight into the status of R&D in India in the field of quantum technologies can be obtained from the following:-

• The QuST Scheme. In 2017, the Department of Science and Technology (DST) launched a mission-mode scheme called Quantum Science and Technology (QuST) for the development and demonstration of quantum computers, quantum communication and cryptography, besides demonstration of quantum teleportation. QuST falls under the Interdisciplinary Cyber Physical Systems (ICPS) division of the DST [21]. The first phase of QuST, for which an amount of Rs 80 crore is stated to have been allocated, is focused on building infrastructure and acquiring human resources, and would see researchers develop basic physical and computation structures such as logic gates, light sources, sensors, imaging devices, clocks, and more, all in quantum states. The second phase would see an effort to match international standards [22].
• The QUEST Project. One mega project under this scheme called Quantum Experiments Using Satellite Technology (QUEST), has been launched as a joint collaboration between Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and the Raman Research Institute (RRI), Bangalore. One of the first major experiments under QUEST would be to establish a secure Quantum Key Distribution link between India and Canada as a collaborative effort with the Quantum Photonics Lab at Ontario’s University of Waterloo [23].
• Research Institutes. The institutes involved in quantum research in India include Harish Chandra Research Institute Allahabad, IIT Bombay, IIT Madras, Indian Institute of Science Education & Research (IISER) Mohali, Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) Mumbai, Indian Institute of Science (IISc) Bengaluru, amongst others [24].
• Armed Forces. As of now, the Armed Forces do not appear to be at all seized of the importance of sponsoring quantum research into military applications, with the current level of interest being limited to presentation of papers in sundry conferences.

Although DST has termed QuST as a mission-mode project bound by deliverables, targets and deadlines, it is evident that much more needs to be done. The latest update on the DST website (accessed on 26 Apr 2020), is the initial call for proposal for QuST dated 22 Nov 2017, which is a clear indicator, amongst many others, that R&D in quantum technologies is not being given the priority it deserves by either the Indian Government or the Armed Forces.

Conclusion

In this first part, a range of disruptive military technologies have been short-listed and categorized based on their expected impact on future warfare. The classification brings out that some of these technologies might result in RMAs, while others are expected to bring about transformative changes in warfare. A brief overview of the status of R&D in AI & robotics and quantum technologies has also been given out. It is observed that in both these areas, while some initiatives have been taken by India, much more needs to be done.

The next part will review the status of global research and India’s approach towards the development of nano and hypersonic weapon technologies.

References

(1)    Artificial Intelligence in Military Operations: Technology, Ethics and the Indian Perspective, IDSA Comment, 21 Jan 2018, Accessed 24 Feb 2021.

(2)    Chuck Hagel, The Defence Information Initiative, Memorandum Sec of Def, 15 Nov 2014, Accessed 24 Feb 2021.

(3)    Peter Dombrowski, America’s Third Offset Strategy, Policy Report, S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Jun 2015, pp. 4, Accessed 24 Feb 2021.

(4)    Summary of the 2018 Department of Defence AI Strategy, US DoD, 08 Nov 2018, Accessed 24 Feb 2021.

(5)    AI Policy – China, Future of Life Institute, Accessed 24 Feb 2021.

(6)    Elsa B Kania, Chinese Military Innovation in Artificial Intelligence, Centre for New American Security, 07 Jun 2019, pp.1-17, Accessed 24 Feb 2021.

(7)    Lt Gen (Dr) R S Panwar, Artificial Intelligence in Military Operations: A Raging Debate and Way Forward for the Indian Armed Forces, USI Monograph, No 2, 2018, USI, New Delhi, pp. 38, Accessed 24 Feb 2021.

(8)    Pranav Mukul, Task Force Set Up to Study AI Applications in Military, The Indian Express, New Delhi, Accessed 28 Feb 2021.

(9)    Implementation of the recommendations of the multi-stakeholder Task Force constituted by the Ministry of Defence for ‘Strategic implementation of Artificial Intelligence for National Security and Defence’, 08 Feb 2019, Department of Defence Production Order, GOI, Accessed 24 Feb 2021.

(10)  Technology Perspective and Capability Roadmap (TPCR) 2018, Department of Defence Production Order, GOI, Accessed 24 Jan 2020, https://mod.gov.in/sites/default/files/tpcr.pdf.

(11)  Robotics, Combat Vehicles R&D Establishment, DRDO Website, Accessed 24 Feb 2021.

(12)  Ibid.

(13)  Ibid.

(14)  Elsa B. Kania & John K. Costello, Quantum Hegemony? China’s Ambitions and the Challenge to U.S. Innovation Leadership, Centre for New American Security, Technology and National Security, Sep 2018, Accessed 28 Feb 2021.

(15)  Graham Carlow, Quantum Supremacy Is Coming: Here’s What You Should Know, Quanta Magazine, 18 Jul 2019, Accessed 28 Feb 2021.

(16)  National Quantum Initiative Act – H.R.6227 / S.3143, American Institute of Physics Website, Accessed 28 Feb 2021.

(17)  Quantum Computing and Defence, The Military Balance 2019, Chapter I Part III, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Accessed 28 Feb 2021.

(18)  Paul Smith-Goodson, Quantum USA Vs. Quantum China: The World’s Most Important Technology Race, Forbes Website, 10 Oct 2019, Accessed 28 Feb 2021.

(19)  Elsa Kania and John Costello, Quantum Leap (Part 1): China’s Advances in Quantum Information Science, China Brief, The Jamestown Foundation, Volume 16, Issue 18, 05 Dec 2016), pp. 13.

(20)  Elsa Kania and John Costello, Quantum Leap (Part 2): China’s Advances in Quantum Information Science, China Brief, The Jamestown Foundation, Volume 16, Issue 19, 21 Dec 2016, pp. 25-26.

(21)  Interdisciplinary Cyber Physical Systems (ICPS) Division Detailed Call For Proposals (CFP) on Quantum Information Science and Technology (QuST) Programme, Department of Science and Technology, pp. 1, Accessed 28 Feb 2021.

(22)  Sandhya Ramesh, India Sets Off on Pursuit of Quantum Computers, the ‘Holy Grail’ of Modern Tech, The Print Blog, 10 Jan 2019, Accessed 28 Feb 2021.

(23)  Quantum Technology gets a Big Boost in India, Business Standard Blog, 09 May 2018, Accessed 28 Feb 2021.

(24)  K S Jayaraman, Quantum Information Revolution – is India Ready? Nature India blog, Accessed 28 Feb 2021.